2025 was a stress test for steel: tariffs, conflicts, and policy shifts rewired trade and leverage. The global market felt unstable because supply imbalances, tariffs, and conflicts kept moving the goalposts. The United States felt those shifts directly, and the lessons point to one conclusion: a resilient steel industry requires a domestic pig iron supply.
The United States is the world’s largest steel importer, and roughly a quarter of the steel we use is imported. Much of that comes from close partners such as Mexico and Canada, along with allies in Asia and Europe including Japan, South Korea, and Germany. That reliance works in stable conditions; it becomes fragile when policy or geopolitics shift.
What Changed in 2025
In March, the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on virtually all steel imports, ending prior exemptions. By June 4, that rate doubled. Major suppliers such as Canada, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea, and the European Union faced the 50% rate, with the United Kingdom being the only exception. Then, in August, Section 232 coverage expanded to 407 additional steel and aluminum derivative products to close loopholes.
These trade developments were largely aimed at countering global overcapacity, particularly from China. China’s steel overcapacity has long distorted markets and threatened America’s economy. It produces more steel than it consumes, and that surplus keeps downward pressure on prices worldwide.
China remains the world’s largest steel producer and exporter, yet very little Chinese steel enters the United States today. The 25% tariffs imposed in 2018 pushed most Chinese steel out of our market. That proved that policy can shape where our steel comes from. It also showed the limit of that approach. When one source is constrained, volumes shift to others, but overall dependence remains. That is why the durable answer is not just smarter sourcing, but more domestic production end to end. Building U.S. steel strength requires a domestic pig iron feedstock to fuel it. This is how we reduce geopolitical risk and give U.S. infrastructure, manufacturing, and defense the stable foundation they need.
Tariff Effects on Imports
The import response to tariffs was immediate. U.S. steel imports fell to a near five-year low in September, according to US Commerce Department data. Across the first ten months of 2025, total steel imports were down 11.3% and finished steel was down 14.5%.
Canada’s steel exports to the U.S. were 27% lower year-to-date, Brazil’s were down 13%, and Mexico’s down 14% versus 2024. The total volume of steel products that entered the country in September fell to 1.56 million short tons, the lowest monthly rate witnessed since December 2020.
With less import pressure, prices held firmer while domestic mills ran harder. By late 2025, capacity utilization sat in the mid-70% range, a notch higher than earlier in the year, which shows producers stepped in to cover part of the gap.
U.S. Steel Demand is Rising
Demand is rising. With new investment across infrastructure, energy, and defense, steel needs are increasing. Large-scale projects such as repairing and modernizing roads and bridges consume significant tonnage. For example, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act transportation funding alone is projected to require an extra 5 million tons of steel for each $100 billion invested.
The United States needs to adapt quickly. We should produce more of our steel at home, which means building an end-to-end domestic supply chain. That chain starts with the right feedstock: pig iron. High-grade steel depends on pig iron to set clean, consistent chemistry, and we have the resources to produce it. Minnesota alone holds iron ore sufficient to supply the nation for centuries.
Why Pig Iron Matters
Pig iron is the essential feedstock for steel production. Most U.S. steel is made in electric arc furnaces. These furnaces rely on a blend: scrap provides volume, while pig iron sets the chemistry for advanced grades used in infrastructure, manufacturing, energy, and defense.
To supply the pig iron share of that blend, the United States has relied on imports for decades. We import all of our merchant pig iron, typically four to six million metric tons a year. That dependence is a structural risk at the same time national investment is lifting steel demand.
Before 2022, roughly sixty percent of U.S. pig iron imports came from Russia and Ukraine. The conflict disrupted those flows. By late 2024, Russian-origin pig iron was effectively shut out of Western markets, while Ukraine’s output and exports were constrained. In 2025, most remaining Ukrainian tonnage moved to nearby European buyers. For the United States, that meant heavier reliance on a narrower set of suppliers — especially Brazil — and greater exposure to price swings and lead times outside our control.
Our Strategic Vulnerability
Pig iron tightened in 2025, and costs rose. Buyers competed for Brazilian and small volumes of Ukrainian pig iron, often paying a premium price. In July, the White House announced a 50% tariff on most Brazilian exports. The initial scope included semi-finished steel and pig iron, which mattered because Brazil supplies the majority of our pig iron. After heavy industry pushback, the administration exempted pig iron and iron-ore pellets on July 31. Had the tariff stayed in place, landed pig iron costs were likely to increase by about $180 to $210 per ton, and many mills would have struggled to make the numbers work.
This episode highlighted, once again, how dependent the United States is on imported pig iron. When a few foreign sources supply a critical input, policy shifts can change costs and lead times overnight. The durable answer is to build a domestic pig iron supply that reduces exposure and supports steady steel production in the United States. That is the vision behind North American Iron’s plan to launch the nation’s first merchant pig iron production.
The Missing Link in U.S. Steel
All these developments — tariffs, geopolitical disruptions, and supply imbalances — point to one conclusion for U.S. industry: we need an end-to-end domestic supply chain for pig iron. The events of 2025 made it plain that relying on imported pig iron is a strategic risk.
The current supply chain is fragile. The United States produces only a fraction of what it consumes, and none of it is merchant pig iron that U.S. steelmakers can buy. About 70% of U.S. pig iron has been coming from Brazil. This year’s near-miss with Brazil tariffs showed how a single policy decision can change costs and lead times overnight. It also underscored a broader truth: when a critical input comes from a few foreign sources, the U.S. economy is exposed, and there are very few alternatives to meet our pig iron demand.
When the country invests, steel demand rises, and when steel demand rises, the need for pig iron rises with it. That pressure will grow in 2026. Data centers for AI require structural steel, trays, housings, and heavy electrical enclosures. Core infrastructure needs long-life rail steel, bridge girders, plate, and rebar. Energy build-outs, from transmission lines to LNG terminals and pipelines, depend on plate, tubulars, and structural components. Electric arc furnaces can stretch scrap, but the advanced grades behind these projects start with pig iron to set clean, consistent chemistry.
If we want a secure, competitive steel sector, we must secure the input that anchors quality. That means producing domestic pig iron at scale. The resource base exists. Minnesota alone holds iron ore that can supply the nation for generations. Building an end-to-end domestic chain, from American ore to American pig iron to American steel, is how we reduce exposure to foreign shocks and keep projects on schedule and on budget.
North American Iron: Closing the Feedstock Gap
North American Iron’s role is to close the feedstock gap. Our focus is a fully domestic supply of low-emission, high-purity pig iron to support U.S. steelmakers. By turning America’s iron resources into a consistent merchant pig iron supply, we will strengthen the foundation beneath U.S. mills.
NAI’s sister company, Calumet Reclamation Company, will reclaim Minnesota’s above-ground iron stockpiles that were preserved and organized by grade. That reclaimed ore will move by rail to North Dakota, where North American Iron will manufacture pig iron with Tenova HYL’s hydrogen-based direct reduction. Our process is expected to generate considerably fewer carbon emissions than imported pig iron.
This is a generational project with American jobs at its core. In Minnesota, reclamation and processing will support about 150 long-term roles. In North Dakota, clean steel manufacturing will scale through construction and into operations, with up to 650 full-time jobs by 2029 after ramp-up. These are skilled positions across operations, engineering, logistics, maintenance, and safety.
Our path is clear. Permitting began in 2024 and is targeted to finish in 2026. Construction follows for roughly three years, with initial production planned for 2029. At full scale, we expect two million tons of pig iron per year. This is a meaningful start that proves the model: American ore to American pig iron to American steel. It is how we take control of our inputs, reduce exposure to foreign shocks, and give U.S. industry a steadier foundation to build on.
